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Make an Estimate of the Situation |
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Carefully observe the situation and attack only where real superiority can be obtained. |
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Amazon.com grew out of founder Jeff Bezos' personal mission to be in business for himself. His course of action was determined when he learned that annual growth on the Web was predicted at 2,200 percent and books were an $82 billion market. He analyzed the opportunity for innovative computerized marketing and decided that the Seattle area would be a good hi-tech base.
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General Paul Cerjan, retired U.S. Army, explains how he uses the steps in conducting the Estimate of the Situation (see facing page) as a great tool for the rapid estimate of any contingency. First, you need to determine the mission. Then, you start thinking what course of action I'm going to take. Then, you work that all the way down until you get to the decision and from that flows the operations order. That's the specific orders to people on what you want done. |
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The Estimate of the Situation can be a rapid estimate or more lengthy analysis. We unconsciously do it in personal interfaces and more consciously estimate the situation prior to issuing plans. |
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I have observed real differences between the way managers from Western and Eastern civilizations gather information to make an Estimate of the Situation. The Western manager is more likely to do a quick study while the Eastern manager will often do a thorough, lengthy analysis. |
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There are a variety of readily perceived indicators that can help you estimate the situation. These indicators signal the competitive strategy and vulnerability. The breadth of these signals can be understood from one of Sun Tzu's translators who identified 33 different signs of enemy activity by Sun Tzu in this chapter. |
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In personal interfaces, these indicators are called body language. Crossed arms indicate opposition. Someone leaning forward and listening indicates intent acceptance. A furrowed brow signals that you proposition is being questioned. |
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In business situations, the signals are also subtly visible. For example, in publicizing pricing moves, companies are signaling their desire to raise prices to others in the industryand may reduce prices if competitors reject the signal. |
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All of these overt signals help the observant manager develop an accurate estimate of the situation. While one does not want to overestimate the opponent, it can be disastrous to underestimate. |
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