Serhiy Haidai, a senior official in eastern Ukraine, claimed in an interview on Sunday that the Ukrainian forces have attacked the headquarters of Russias Mercenary group called Wagner. This attack leads to the death of most of the mercenaries he claims. According to Western experts, Wagner state sponsors mercenaries who work in favor of the Kremlin.

Details of the Ukraine attack :

In the interview, Haidai goes on to say that the Ukraine forces launched a strike on Saturday on the hotel in the town of Kadiivka, west of the regions main center of Luhansk. They had a little pop there, just where Wagner headquarters was located. A huge number of those who were there died.. Gaiden did not state the exact number of casualties resulting from this attack but he said:

I am sure that at least 50% of those who managed to survive will die before they get medical care, he said. This is because even in our Luhansk region, they have stolen equipment.

However, there is no official confirmation about the presence of the Wagners at the hotel.

The Russian defense ministry has made no comment about this incident

Source: WION

The Wagner group:

The Wagner group is a Russian military company that is set up by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former restauranteur and a close associate of Russian president Vladimir Putin. The group is also called Vladimir Putins private army. In recent years, the group has been accused of war crimes and human rights abuses. Units of this group have been earlier deployed in places like Crimea, Syria, Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic

Updates on the Russia-Ukraine War

The war continues to rage in Ukraine. This week, Ukraine shot down 10 drones and five other hitting energy facilities in the port city of Odesa  leaving around 1.5 million people without power.

The situation in the Odesa region is very difficult, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky said, adding, Unfortunately the hits were critical, so it takes more than just time to restore electricity

The port of Odesa also was not operating on Sunday, Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said, that grains traders were not expected to suspend exports.

In Melitopol, a Ukrainian missile attack killed two people and injured 10, pro-Moscow authorities said. A Moscow-installed official shared pictures showing a big fire following the strike.

Air defense systems destroyed two missiles, and four reached their targets, Yevgeny Balitsky said on the Telegram messaging app.
A confidential security assessment from allied figures suggests deluded Russian leader Vladimir Putin is still convinced his hybrid warfare will outlast western resolve

Exclusive: Desperate Vladimir Putin is preparing for long conflict as he expands war in Ukraine

Desperate Russian President Vladimir Putin is expanding his war in Ukraine, stepping up mobilisation and preparing for a long conflict, it has been claimed.

A confidential security assessment from allied figures suggests the deluded Russian leader is still convinced his hybrid warfare will outlast western resolve.

The write-up says Putin believes his Iranian drones programme attacking energy infrastructure, cyber attacks, weaponsing of refugees, fake news and sabotage will prevail.

It says his delusion comes against a backdrop of disastrous casualties among raw recruits, many killed by their own side for fleeing and rock-bottom troop morale.

One young Russian man is quoted when asked why he fled his own country in the face of conscription, saying he: ...saw no reason to die defending his country when no-one was attacking it.

Image: AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images)

Russian commanders, it is said, are using blocking units to liquidate anybody retreating, in a revival of eastern front WWII tactics.

The assessment also says Russian commanders are desperate for an operational pause, a break in operations to build-up defences against Ukraines counter-offensive.

And Russian troops are having to resort to stand-off engagements against Ukraine, using artillery, mortars and grenade launchers as they cannot close with Kyivs forces.

Moscows military is said increasingly to having to rely on the notorious Wagner Group mercenary unit for close quarter battles.

And it suggests Putins once near-allies are now backing away from Moscow, even including Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Image: AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images)

It also points to mysterious and extremely damaging attacks within Russia on military sites which may prove to be a step-change in the war in Ukraine,.

It says: Regardless of the failures of his army in the field and the lack of enthusiasm amongst his generals for engaging with NATO, there is no sign whatsoever of Putin conceding that he is in danger of losing the war.

On the contrary, not only is he not scaling down his ambition, he is doing everything to expand the war and Russias ability to wage it.

The report goes on to say: At home we are seeing strenuous and increasing efforts to expand Russias defence industry and to prepare for a new stage in the mobilisation process.

This is exposing significant failings in the defence industry and in Russias economy generally.

Image: Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Whilst mobilisation has become less chaotic than at the start, it is still facing significant difficulties and is no more popular than when it was first introduced.

Russians too are experiencing the impact of winter weather as their centralised heating systems break down due to so many heating engineers having been mobilised.

Nevertheless, notwithstanding the obstacles and difficulties and the ever-increasing impact of sanctions, these war policies are being pushed through as a priority.

Putin is preparing Russia for a long war.
A man walks down a war-torn street, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Slovyansk, Donetsk region of Ukraine, Dec. 12.SHANNON STAPLETON/Reuters

Russia and Ukraine pounded each others forces in heavy fighting around the small eastern city of Bakhmut on Tuesday, as Kyivs allies pledged just over 1 billion euros ($1.05 billion) to help Ukrainians survive the freezing winter.

Invading Russian forces have fought to seize Bakhmut for months as part of a grinding battle for control of the Donetsk region, one of four territories in Ukraine the Kremlin claims to have annexed since its Feb. 24 invasion in votes rejected by most countries as illegal.

Theyre shelling really hard, theres shelling, especially at night, Valentyna, 70, told Reuters as she fled Bakhmut, now largely reduced to rubble by incessant bombardment.

The house would shake and every minute, second you expect it could crumble around you and thatd be it. I couldnt even sleep in the last week, so I decided to leave, she added.

Valentyna, who declined to give her surname, spoke in a van evacuating her via the town of Kostiantynivka to the relative safety of Ukrainian-controlled Pokrovsk.

Although Bakhmut, once a city of 80,000 people, straddles a road to other important towns, military analysts do not see it as a major strategic goal for Russia. It has been the focus of an assault largely driven by fighters from Russias private military company Wagner Group, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukraine has said Russian forces are suffering huge losses in the brutal dug-in trench warfare on the eastern front. Britains defence ministry has said the high cost of capturing Bakhmut could make it a mainly symbolic and political objective.

In its evening update, Ukraines armed forces General Staff said 60 Russian soldiers were killed and 100 injured in a weekend strike in the neighbouring province of Luhansk.

A civilian official earlier said the attack hit a building being used as barracks for Wagner Group soldiers. The Ukrainian General Staff did not mention the Wagner Group.

Neither Wagner nor the Russian government confirmed the strike. Reuters could not independently verify the Ukrainian accounts.

Moscow is also hammering Ukraines energy infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones, at times cutting off electricity for millions of civilians who are enduring Europes biggest conflict since World War Two.

Air raid sirens wailed across Ukraine on Tuesday afternoon, but no new attacks were reported and the all-clear sounded later.

In Paris, about 70 countries and institutions pledged just over 1 billion euros ($1.05 billion) to help maintain Ukraines water, food, energy, health and transport in face of Russias attacks, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had said Ukraine needed at least 800 million euros ($840 million). Its a lot, but the price is less than the cost of blackouts, Zelensky told the meeting via video link.

French President Emmanuel Macron said there was an agreement on removing heavy weapons from Ukraines Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and that talks were under way on the way to do this.

Denis Pushilin, Russian-installed administrator of the portion of Donetsk province held by Moscow, told Russian media that just over half of the Donetsk Peoples Republic had been liberated. The self-styled republic is a breakaway Russian-backed entity that has fought Ukrainian forces since 2014.

Reuters was unable to independently verify the report.

Fighting in the region in recent weeks has left unclear which parts of Donetsk are under Russian and Ukrainian control.

Three civilians were killed in Donetsk over the past 24 hours, regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on his Telegram channel, while in the southern Kherson region, governor Yaroslav Yanushevych reported three people killed by Russian artillery.

An international team of legal advisers from the Hague has been working with local prosecutors in Ukraine's recaptured city of Kherson, as they begin gathering evidence of alleged sexual crimes by Russian forces. Reuters

As well as destroying Bakhmut, Russias sustained shelling of the frontline in Donetsk has heavily damaged the city of Avdiivka in the regions centre, Zelensky said on Friday.

On Monday, Ukraines General Staff said Russia kept concentrating its efforts to advance and capture both cities, hitting Ukrainian defensive positions in several towns near Bakhmut with tank, mortar and artillery fire.

Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in the Zaporizhzhia region, late on Monday shared video on Telegram of what he said was a damaged bridge linking a suburb to Melitopol, a Russian-occupied city Ukraine sees as vital to Russias defence of territory it holds in the south, including Crimea.

Reuters could not independently confirm the report. Ivan Fedorov, Melitopols exiled mayor, also shared video taken from the perspective of a vehicle approaching what appeared to be the bridge and then reversing away from a section that had buckled.

Fedorov drew a parallel with an attack in October on a more strategically significant road-and-rail bridge connecting Russia with the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of orchestrating that blast and Moscow unleashed retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian cities including the capital Kyiv.

There are no peace talks under way to end the conflict, which Moscow describes as a special military operation against security threats posed by its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies call it an unprovoked, imperialist land grab.

Russia on Tuesday dismissed a peace proposal from Zelensky that would involve a pullout of Russian troops and demanded Kyiv accept new territorial realities that included Russias addition of four Ukrainian regions as its new subjects.
The city of Bachmut has been shattered.

In a routine speech on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that for a long time in the past, Bakhmut, Soder, Malinka, and Crimea had no room for survival because of the war. . Russia has already destroyed Bakhmut.

Located on the eastern front of Donetsk Province, Bakhmut (Bakhmut) is an important transportation hub with a population of just over 70,000. From here, follow the M03 road to the northwest to reach Slavyansk, and there is a H20 road that runs southwest to connect with the Ukrainian front. In the past six months, regardless of the situation in other parts of Ukraine, Russia has always been attacking Bakhmut, and the main force responsible for the attack is Wagners mercenaries.

When Ukraine counterattacked in the direction of Kharkov, Russia was fighting Bakhmut, Ukraine counterattacked the northern part of Kherson, Russia was fighting Bakhmut, and when Russia retreated from Kherson, it was still fighting Bakhmut. Now that winter is here, Russia is still fighting Bakhmut. Why is Russia so obsessed with Bachmut? What happened to Bachmut in the past six months?

Three Phases of the Battle of Bahmut

The battle for Bahmut over the past nine months can be divided into three phases. Bachmut had been without any fighting until May. This is because Russias main offensive direction at that time was the Kiev Kharkov and Kherson regions. Bakhmut is located on the front line of the Donbass. In the past eight years, it has been one of the cities that Ukraine has focused on operating defense lines. Russia wants to bypass the difficult bone of Donbass and attack important cities in Ukraine.

But after the defeats in Kharkov and Kiev, Russia refocused on the Donbas region. Russias attempt to take control of the entire Donbas region began in May. During the summer campaign, Russia finally captured Luhansk, Lysichansk and Severodonetsk in July, taking almost complete control of the Luhansk Oblast. Especially on May 22, Russia captured Popasna and began a small-scale attack in the direction of Bakhmut.

Russias defeat in Kharkov and Kherson made the Russian army realize that its offensive power was limited, and adjusted its strategic goals. The primary goal was to take down the city of Bakhmut. In the current entire Donbass war situation, Bakhmut is a transportation hub and plays a vital role. Capture here, the northwest can attack Slavyansk, and the southwest can cut off the entire defense line of Ukraine. It has extremely important strategic significance for both Russia and Ukraine.

Beginning on August 1, the Bakhmut battle ushered in the third and most brutal stage. Russia began to bombard the surrounding area of Bakhmut and launched a large-scale ground attack. From August 1st to August 3rd, Russia used the air force and artillery fire to bomb the surrounding areas of Bakhmut for three days. On August 4th, the Wagner military group began to launch a ground offensive.

According to the Ukrainian official briefing on August 14, Russia had some success near Bakhmut. However, Ukrainian officials did not give detailed information at the time. In the next few months, the two sides repeatedly saw-saw in Bahemut, and paid a heavy price for casualties for a little progress that was completely inconspicuous. On September 20, Nagin, the military commander of the Wagner Group, was killed near Bakhmut.

On 7 October, the Russians advanced to several villages south and southeast of Bakhmut, particularly the village of O PY TN E located south of Bakhmut. If you pay attention to the battle reports from the Ukrainian front, you will find that throughout October and November, near Bakhmut, the two sides changed hands repeatedly, and the casualties were very heavy. For example, on November 10, Ukraine claimed to have caused 140 casualties in the Wagner Group in the past 24 hours. On October 27, the New York Times reported on the Battle of Bakhmut, according to which article Ukrainian troops had injured at least 290 people in the past 36 hours.

You see this video, lifeless in the barren land, a soldier puts a machine gun in his trench. Such a scene is not Verdun during World War I, but Ukraine in the 21st century.

In this one video we see the destroyed buildings in the center of Bahamut. Ukrainian soldiers are scrambling to evacuate the remaining civilians. Bachmuts mode of warfare had entered trench warfare. A war in the 21st century has been turned into the mode of World War I.

There is also a small city called Soder 11 kilometers northeast of Bakhmut. Lets see this video taken by a drone. The whole city was razed to the ground, and all the buildings were destroyed. We can see that no building is intact, and there are ruins everywhere.

Entering the winter, the Russian armys artillery fires light up the Ukrainian army without sleeping bags

According to this report by the British Guardian, the front lines of Russia and Ukraine are very close, only 100 meters away, and they can even hear each others laughter. The Ukrainian video shows that the vast majority of Russian soldiers are conscripts who do not know how to call for artillery support.

Ukrainian soldiers said that we could see them shooting randomly from the woods, just like they did in Somalia, because they didnt want to show their heads. Saw Russian conscripts wearing WW2-like metal helmets. The bodies we found on the battlefield showed that they had neither mobile phones nor any papers.

Ukrainian soldiers reported that some Russian troops wanted to surrender, but another group of Russian soldiers fired violently at the Ukrainian positions, preventing Russian soldiers who wanted to surrender from coming.

Ukrainian soldiers told reporters that our impression is that they use Wagner mercenaries to organize the attack and use newly mobilized soldiers to defend. We saw from the scout drones that they were very disorganized, which was a big reason we were able to kill so many enemies.

Ukrainian soldiers also said that in recent battles, they heard radio calls from Russians. Russian frontline soldiers called for artillery support, but were told that they did not have enough ammunition to provide artillery support. It can be seen that as the war has gone on for so long, even the artillery stockpiles of the Soviet era, the Russian artillery may have fought almost the same. Ukrainian soldiers said that in the early days of the war, Russian artillery fire was like a wall of fire, with flames and shells everywhere. Now Russian artillery fire is not as fierce as before.

Ukrainian soldier Nazar said that Russia tried to raid Ukraine in small groups at night after the first Russian offensive failed. But Ukraine is equipped with thermal imaging cameras that can see incoming targets very clearly at night.

However, the situation of the Ukrainians is not so good. Winter has come, but Nazar and his soldiers do not have enough sleeping bags. The first night they got here, they made it through the night by lighting a fire, and then he found a sleeping bag that would allow him to rest in the cold winter.

Ukraine has entered the cold winter, and the situation in the field is very bad. From this video, we can see that the country roads are already frozen, and Ukrainian soldiers can skate on them.

Russia spares no expense to turn Bakhmut into ruins

So far, Russia has gradually formed a siege around Bakhmut, launching attacks on Bakhmut from multiple directions at the same time from the east, south and northeast.

Judging from the news from the front line, the situation on the Ukrainian front line is not optimistic. The town of Soder in the northeast of Bakhmut and the villages in the south have fallen, and Bakhmut has also been beaten into a pile of ruins. I think that, probably in the near future, Ukrainian troops will have to withdraw from Bakhmut.

Russias success in the region has been achieved regardless of the casualties of front-line soldiers. After the fall of Bakhmut, it means that Russia will be able to continue in the direction of Slavyansk and Kras Thomas Kohl. Yet the region has been the Ukrainian command center for the entire Donbass for the past few years. Ukraine built huge fortifications here. Every step forward, Russia has to pay a huge price in casualties.

It took Russia more than four months from August 1 to December, regardless of any casualties, to take down such a small city as Bakhmut. With Russias current combat situation, it is impossible to advance to Slavyansk. Whats more, Russia had previously attacked from north to south, and wanted to attack Slavyansk from the north from Izyum to the south. At present, Izyum has been retaken by Ukraine early, and the sides and rear of Slavyansk are very stable. It is difficult to pose a huge threat to Slavyansk only from the direction of Bakhmut.

From the Battle of Bachmut, we can see that modern warfare is very cruel. Sun Tzu is the founder of the military strategist. The most important thought in Sun Tzus Art of War is to fight cautiously, and you must be cautious when launching a war. Sun Tzus Art of War said that the Lord should not be angry and start an army, and the general should not be angry and go to war. Anger can be restored to joy, anger can be restored to joy, a subjugated country cannot be revived, and the dead cannot be resurrected. Therefore, Mingjun is cautious, and good generals are vigilant, this is the way to stabilize the country and the whole army. This sentence should really make Putin and Xi Jinping listen carefully.

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[1/3] Valentyna, 70, sheds a tear while being evacuated from Bakhmut, by volunteer organisation the Chaplain Patrol, en route to the Pokrovsk train station to meet her son in Kyiv, Ukraine, December 13, 2022. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton















KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Ukraine, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Ukrainians leaving the eastern city of Bakhmut this week described almost constant Russian shelling that forced residents to shelter in basements and sleep in the bitter cold.

Bakhmut, with a population of 80,000 people before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, has become a symbol of the grinding warfare playing out along much of the eastern front, where enemy positions have rarely budged more than a few hundred metres (yards) in recent weeks.

Military experts say Bakhmut appears to be of little strategic value, but Russian forces including mercenaries fighting for the Wagner group have in recent days intensified their bombardment.

"The house would shake and every minute or second you expect it could crumble around you and that'd be it. I couldn't even sleep in the last week, so I decided to leave," said Valentyna, a retired woman of 70 who fled on Tuesday.

She declined to give her full name.

Before the war, Bakhmut was best known for its popular brand of Soviet-era, champagne-style wine and a nearby salt mine.

Its capture by Russian forces would be a rare piece of good news for Moscow after having suffered a series of humiliating battlefield setbacks against foes they initially thought would be easily overcome.

Military losses on both sides could be heavy in and around Bakhmut in fighting that has ebbed and flowed since May, although there are no reliable estimates.

According to the regional governor, fewer than 12,000 residents remain in a town that has sustained serious damage.

'WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR?'

Leonid, a 37-year-old military chaplain who only gave his first name, drove a van into Bakhmut to evacuate civilians.

He described a picture of devastation, with mostly elderly people left behind on the streets and humanitarian aid workers covered in soot after fighting a fire.

Footage taken from inside Bakhmut in recent days has shown largely deserted areas, some buildings burning or badly bombed and regular bursts of gunfire.

"The situation is horrible, because there is constant shelling, constant attacks," said Leonid, speaking to Reuters in his van as it passed through the town of Kostiantynivka en route away from front lines after its trip in Bakhmut.

"When we came into Bakhmut, there were fires to the left and right," he said.

Valentyna was evacuated in Leonid's van, headed towards the train station in Ukrainian-controlled Pokrovsk on the way to joining her son in Kyiv.

The pensioner said she finally left her flat because of the cold - there was no central heating - and the fear of shelling.

"It was cold. We slept in temperatures of three degrees Celsius in the house under three blankets ... You lose faith," she said, adding that many people remained in Bakhmut.

"Where the guys picked me up from, there's a basement nearby, there's a kindergarten there. There are a lot of people there."

Leonid said around 60 people, 15 of them children, had gathered around the van when he stopped, but that they turned down his offer to drive them out.

"I begged them to go. No one agreed. Some came up and took my phone number: a grandma whose apartment burned down, another two women with children," he said.

"People are still waiting for everything to end, even though it has become much more dangerous. People cry, but still stay. We don't know what they are waiting for."

Writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Mike Collett-White and Mark Heinrich











Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Russia's arms dealers and mercenaries have fueled a destabilizing wave of violence in developing African countries, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned an audience of African leaders and diplomats.

We see Russia continuing to peddle cheap weapons, Austin said Tuesday at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington. And also, we see Russia employing mercenaries across the continent, and that is destabilizing as well.

Austin was one of three Cabinet-level officials to join a trio of African presidents for a discussion on peace, security, and governance at the first major summit of U.S. and African officials since 2014. He associated that warning about Russia with an earlier statement by one of our senior leaders here, in what seemed to be a reference to Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoums account of the transnational terrorist threats in West Africa and the Sahel region.

"Since around 2000, Algerian terrorist groups set up in northern Mali and developed a criminal economy developed another ecosystem in the area, Bazoum said during the event. And on that general backdrop, that there was the fall of the Qaddafi regime [in Libya], and that many weapons circulated in the Sahel and terrorist groups that used to be based in the safe havens in northern Mali spread out in the south ... and those groups have become the monsters against which we now find ourselves fighting today.

THEY WANT TO BECOME A SUPERPOWER: AFRICAN PORT LINKS COULD MAKE CHINESE ACCESS TO ATLANTIC INEVITABLE

Bazoums survey points to the basis for multiple great power narratives in Africa. Russian officials often cite the 2011 overthrow of Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, whose regime was targeted with airstrikes from leading NATO member-states in advance of an expected massacre at Benghazi, to criticize Western foreign policy. More recently, a military coup in Mali led to the withdrawal of French counterterrorism forces and paved the way for the arrival of Russias Wagner Group mercenaries, which led to a surge in reports of civilian massacres.

Wagners war crimes and human rights abuses in Mali are not an isolated case but rather the latest in an ongoing trend, a pair of analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in May. In many of their past and ongoing deployments, Wagner has perpetrated a wide range of abuses against local civilian populations."

China and Russia, after years of focused effort to develop advantages in Africa, cast a wary eye on the conference in Washington.

Our partnership with African countries is always based on mutual respect, equality, and sincere cooperation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Tuesday in a prim comment. With the U.S.-Africa Summit to be held soon, we welcome greater international focus on Africa. Meanwhile, we firmly oppose turning Africa into a wrestling ground for major-country rivalry or using ones Africa strategy as a tool to curb and attack other countries cooperation with Africa.

That message resonates in many African capitals. In terms of our interaction with some of our partners in Europe and elsewhere, there has been a sense of patronizing bullying toward, You choose this or else, South African foreign minister Naledi Pandor told Secretary of State Antony Blinken in August.

Blinken, who appeared alongside Austin at the panel, adopted a more muted tone regarding Russia. "The solutions that are made just in the United States are not likely to be sustainable. Were focused on listening to our partners: What are their needs? What are local requirements? How do we build together on that basis?" he said. "Were looking at making genuine investments because, again, a response to the immediate is necessary, but it is insufficient, and its not a long-term solution. Were dealing now with a massive food insecurity crisis. Its the product of a lot of things, as we all know. Its the product of climate change. Its the product of COVID. Its a product, unfortunately, of conflict, including Russias aggression against Ukraine."

His team has downplayed the competitive salience of the U.S.-Africa summit. The United States prioritizes our relationship with Africa for the sake of our mutual interests and our partnership in dealing with global challenges, State Department Assistant Secretary Molly Phee, who leads the African Affairs bureau, told reporters before the summit began. We are very conscious, again, of the Cold War history, were conscious, again, of the deleterious impact of colonialism on Africa, and we studiously seek to avoid repeating some of the mistakes of those earlier eras.

Yet U.S. officials, long suspicious of Chinas overseas infrastructure investment initiatives, which allowed Beijing to gain sovereignty over a port in Sri Lanka, for instance, feel uneasy about the extension of that influence in Africa.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

We're witnessing the PRC expand its footprint on the continent, on a daily basis, Austin said. And as they do that, they're also expanding their economic influence. The troubling piece there is that they're not always transparent in terms of what they're doing, and that creates problems that will be, eventually, destabilizing  if they're not already.


In background briefings and interviews, the White House signals that the purpose of this years U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit is to show that the United States is ready to compete in Africa. Kudos to President Biden for recognizing that the United States cannot take Africa for granted.

The notion, however, that one strategy fits all for the continent is condescending.

Would the White House argue that a single Asia strategy would suffice? Are Japan and Saudi Arabia the same? Or would a Europe strategy make sense if it treats the leaders of democracies like France and Germany as equivalent to dictatorships like Belarus and Turkey?

The diversity of Africa and African governance requires different strategies. Certainly, the United States can outcompete China and Russia among Africas democracies. When governments are accountable to their public, rulers neither have the power nor are immune from consequences if Beijing seeks to bribe them. Unless the United States is able and willing to out-bribe the Chinese Communist Party to beat them at their own game, countries like Equatorial Guinea, Algeria, or Somalia, however, require a strategy centered more on U.S. coercion.

The same holds true for Russia. As French influence across the Sahel collapsed, Russia moved in to fill the gap. Here, the United States faces a conundrum. Malis junta sent Paris packing and the country turned to Moscow because Russian paramilitaries were willing to do what the French would not: target opponents based on their ethnicity. Conferences and lunches in Washington are nice, and while Biden wisely omitted Mali, he still has not formulated a strategy to deal with the problem Mali represents.

In other cases, such as the Central African Republic, Russia utilized paramilitaries like the Wagner Group both for plausible deniability and to extract the countrys resources in order to fund the intervention and turn a profit. Often, failing leaders invite the Russians in to help prop up their regime, essentially selling their countrys future for the sake of personal power. Here, the United States also has no clear strategy. Simply sanctioning countries that embrace Wagner mercenaries will not work if the United States has no strategy to outcompete the Russians.

Biden campaigned upon ending forever wars. Once in office, he doubled down. The idea that the Biden Administration will order U.S. forces into countries like the Central African Republic to deny space to the Russians is farcical. Frankly, the notion that any Republic administration would anymore send the military to fight an insurgency is as unlikely.

The U.S.-African Leaders Forum could be a good first step if there is adequate follow-through, but the idea that diplomacy alone will enable U.S. competition is naive. With China and Russia both challenging the rules-based order, is it any surprise they refuse to operate by its rules?

This is why coercion matters to stop China from transforming countries like Equatorial Guinea into a Chinese base. To be proactive, the United States should reverse its Obama-era abandonment of the Lajes Airfield in the Azores. It must also recognize the strategic logic of Somaliland ties, especially given Chinas growing presence next door in Djibouti.

To counter the Russian problem requires a different strategy. Here the White House should work through African partners like Rwanda willing to put boots on the ground. This requires resources more than red carpets or fancy lunches. It also means that the State Department will need to engage in consistent, two-way diplomacy rather than have Secretary of State Antony Blinken parachute into capitals to lecture, not listen, and then depart.

Simply put, if the United States is going to succeed, it is necessary both to recognize diplomacy will not be enough and American humility cannot be in such short supply.

Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Dr. Michael Rubin is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shiite politics, including Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East? (AEI Press, 2019); Kurdistan Rising (AEI Press, 2016); Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes (Encounter Books, 2014); and Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave, 2005).
Russia and Ukraine pounded each other's forces in heavy fighting around the small eastern city of Bakhmut on Tuesday, as Kyiv's allies pledged just over 1 billion euros ($1.05 billion) to help Ukrainians survive the freezing winter. Invading Russian forces have fought to seize Bakhmut for months as part of a grinding battle for control of the Donetsk region, one of four territories in Ukraine the Kremlin claims to have annexed since its Feb. 24 invasion in votes rejected by most countries as illegal.

"They're shelling really hard, there's shelling, especially at night," Valentyna, 70, told Reuters as she fled Bakhmut, now largely reduced to rubble by incessant bombardment. "The house would shake and every minute, second you expect it could crumble around you and that'd be it. I couldn't even sleep in the last week, so I decided to leave," she added.

Valentyna, who declined to give her surname, spoke in a van evacuating her via the town of Kostiantynivka to the relative safety of Ukrainian-controlled Pokrovsk. Although Bakhmut, once a city of 80,000 people, straddles a road to other important towns, military analysts do not see it as a major strategic goal for Russia. It has been the focus of an assault largely driven by fighters from Russia's private military company Wagner Group, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukraine has said Russian forces are suffering huge losses in the brutal dug-in trench warfare on the eastern front. Britain's defence ministry has said the high cost of capturing Bakhmut could make it a mainly symbolic and political objective. In its evening update, Ukraine's armed forces General Staff said 60 Russian soldiers were killed and 100 injured in a weekend strike in the neighbouring province of Luhansk.

A civilian official earlier said the attack hit a building being used as barracks for Wagner Group soldiers. The Ukrainian General Staff did not mention the Wagner Group. Neither Wagner nor the Russian government confirmed the strike. Reuters could not independently verify the Ukrainian accounts.

Moscow is also hammering Ukraine's energy infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones, at times cutting off electricity for millions of civilians who are enduring Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two. Air raid sirens wailed across Ukraine on Tuesday afternoon, but no new attacks were reported and the all-clear sounded later.

$1.05 BILLION AID FOR UKRAINE In Paris, about 70 countries and institutions pledged just over 1 billion euros ($1.05 billion) to help maintain Ukraine's water, food, energy, health and transport in face of Russia's attacks, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said Ukraine needed at least 800 million euros ($840 million). "It's a lot, but the price is less than the cost of blackouts," Zelenskiy told the meeting via video link. French President Emmanuel Macron said there was an agreement on removing heavy weapons from Ukraine's Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and that talks were under way on the way to do this.

Denis Pushilin, Russian-installed administrator of the portion of Donetsk province held by Moscow, told Russian media that just over half of the Donetsk People's Republic had been "liberated". The self-styled republic is a breakaway Russian-backed entity that has fought Ukrainian forces since 2014. Reuters was unable to independently verify the report.

Fighting in the region in recent weeks has left unclear which parts of Donetsk are under Russian and Ukrainian control. Three civilians were killed in Donetsk over the past 24 hours, regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on his Telegram channel, while in the southern Kherson region, governor Yaroslav Yanushevych reported three people killed by Russian artillery.

RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT As well as destroying Bakhmut, Russia's sustained shelling of the frontline in Donetsk has heavily damaged the city of Avdiivka in the region's centre, Zelenskiy said on Friday.

On Monday, Ukraine's General Staff said Russia kept concentrating its efforts to advance and capture both cities, hitting Ukrainian defensive positions in several towns near Bakhmut with tank, mortar and artillery fire. Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in the Zaporizhzhia region, late on Monday shared video on Telegram of what he said was a damaged bridge linking a suburb to Melitopol, a Russian-occupied city Ukraine sees as vital to Russias defence of territory it holds in the south, including Crimea.

Reuters could not independently confirm the report. Ivan Fedorov, Melitopol's exiled mayor, also shared video taken from the perspective of a vehicle approaching what appeared to be the bridge and then reversing away from a section that had buckled. Fedorov drew a parallel with an attack in October on a more strategically significant road-and-rail bridge connecting Russia with the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of orchestrating that blast and Moscow unleashed retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian cities including the capital Kyiv.

There are no peace talks under way to end the conflict, which Moscow describes as a "special military operation" against security threats posed by its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies call it an unprovoked, imperialist land grab. Russia on Tuesday dismissed a peace proposal from Zelenskiy that would involve a pullout of Russian troops and demanded Kyiv accept new territorial "realities" that included Russia's addition of four Ukrainian regions as its "new subjects".

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
MARY REICHARD, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: WORLD Tour with our reporter in Africa, Onize Ohikere.

ONIZE OHIKERE, REPORTER: We begin today in southern Africa.

AUDIO: [Choir singing]

Church members and relatives in Zambias capital of Lusaka have received the body of a 23-year-old student, who died fighting for Russia in the Ukraine War.

Lemekani Nyirenda was studying at Moscow Engineering Physics Institute when he received a nine-and-a-half year sentence in April 2020 over a drug offense.

The Russia-based paramilitary group Wagner later admitted it recruited him for its special operation in Ukraine.

Nyirendas cousin in Zambia said the family still believed he was studying in Russia when they learned of his death.

AUDIO: Even now we don't believe Lemekani is no more.

The Wagner group is also accused of recruiting prisoners from the Central African Republic to fight in Ukraine. This month, the U.S. State Department designated the group as a religious freedom violator, along with other notorious terror organizations.

Next, to Peru. Recently appointed President Dina Boluarte is trying to move up general elections to April. At least seven protesters have died in ongoing demonstrations against the new government.

AUDIO: [Protest scene with tear gas]

Protesters are calling for Boluartes resignation and the release of former president Pedro Castillo. Authorities detained Castillo last week shortly after his impeachment.

Thousands have demonstrated across Peru, including in the capital of Lima, where police fired tear gas.

AUDIO: [Protesters chanting]

In Perus second-largest city of Arequipa, thousands of protesters burned security booths and forced the closure of the airport.

Rural unions and indigenous peoples groups have called for an indefinite strike to support Castillo, who was a rural teacher and union leader.

We head over to northern Kosovo.

AUDIO: [Car sounds]

Ethnic Serbs used trucks and other heavy vehicles to block roads on Sunday after authorities detained a former Kosovo Serb police officer.

Kosovo proclaimed independence from Serbia in 2008, but Serbia has refused to recognize its statehood.

The officer was one of about 600 ethnic Serbs who resigned from the force last month. They were protesting a proposal requiring Serbs to trade Serbian license plates dating to before the war for Kosovar ones.

Serbias president said he would ask a NATO-led peacekeeping force to deploy a thousand Serbian troops to the region.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti rejected the move.

KURTI: Serbia is trying to return its army to Kosova in spite of genocide over 23 years ago, which was stopped by NATO intervention.

NATO and the European Union have called on both sides to avoid provocations.

We wrap up today in Bethlehem, where Christmas pilgrims are making a comeback.

AUDIO: [Customers talking]

Customers walked through olive-wood carvings depicting Nativity scenes. Elsewhere, tourist groups from around the world explored the town where Jesus was born.

Israel reopened to vaccinated foreign tourists last year, but Bethlehem remained closed.

Saliba Nissan is the co-owner of the Bethlehem New Store.

NISSAN: We were closed for almost two years. No tourists, no nothing.

Elias Arja, head of Bethlehem hotel association, said he expects business to start picking up as Christian tourists return to visit the Church of the Nativity, the Holy Sepulchre, and other historic sites.

ARJA: This year, I see it is 100% occupancy of the three nights of the Christmas Eve, and the day before and the day after.

Thats it for this weeks World Tour. Reporting for WORLD, Im Onize Ohikere in Abuja, Nigeria.



WORLD Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of WORLD Radio programming is the audio record.
The enemy agent was gathering intelligence about the combat positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Odesa Oblast.

Read also: Wagner recruits mercenaries from prisoners in occupied areas of Ukraine

He was primarily interested in the places of deployment and features of camouflage of the Ukrainian coastal defense units, the SBU said.

According to the investigation, the traitor turned out to be a local resident who was recruited by the special services of the Russian Federation after the start of the full-scale invasion. Electronic maps with the targets of enemy airstrikes on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast were found on his phone.

Read also: Wagner Group should be treated same as ISIS, Estonian FM says

During a search of the suspects residence, the SBU detectives discovered computer equipment that he used for his subversive activities.

Currently, the SBU investigators informed him of the suspicion under part 2 of Art. 111 (treason committed under martial law) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. The man faces 15 years in prison or life imprisonment.

Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
The Russian mercenaries hailed by their leader as the most skilled and experienced soldiers in the war against Ukraine have gotten themselves blown up over the weekend.

Pro-Kremlin Russian media channels were the first to reveal the strike Sunday on a hotel in the occupied Luhansk region, furiously noting that the enemy used HIMARS to hit the hotel in Kadiivka where Wagner fighters were located.

Photos showed the building, a hotel called Zhdanovs Guest House, blown to smithereens, though no details were immediately given on how many Wagner fighters were killed. Russian state-run media was largely mum on the whole affair (with the exception of a Kremlin-friendly tabloid saying the site had been targeted because the U.S. knew Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin frequented the private armys headquarters there.)

Ukrainian authorities say the Russian military is carefully concealing its losses in the strike. Serhiy Haidai, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, confirmed the strike and quipped on Telegram that many Wagner mercenaries would undoubtedly be absent for their next roll call.

On Tuesday, Haidai issued a statement saying hundreds of Wagnerites have been killed before reaching the frontline in the last week and a half, either by explosions caused by smoking in their headquarters or their barracks.

Meanwhile, Bild reported Tuesday that a selfie taken in front of the hotel in Kadiivka may have alerted Ukraines military to the Wagner fighters whereabouts and sealed their fate. Russian media channels circulated the photo, speculating that the Russian soldier shown grinning in front of Zhdanovs Guest House was none other than Pavel Prigozhin, the son of the Wagner founder, who previously said his son was serving in the ranks of the private army.

It was not immediately clear when the selfie was taken, and Prigozhin himself denied that his son had been impacted by the HIMARS strike. The Daily Beast has not independently verified the authenticity of the photo and its potential links to the bombing.

Dont worry, my son is fine, the Putin-friendly businessman said in a statement Sunday.
The new Malian administration invited into the country mercenaries from the Wagner group guarding the gold and diamond deposits and the political leadership in the CAR. Although Macron tried to blame his incompetence on Russia, at the Francophonie summit in Tunis some delegates accused France of abusing its historical, economic and political authority in the former colonies. After the military coup in Burkina Faso, protesters burned French flags and waved Russian ones.

A slap from Algeria

Algeria has historically been closer to France than other colonies. But more than 90% of respondents in a nationwide poll in June 2022 supported restricting the use of the French language. In Algerian schools, French is excluded from the list of compulsory subjects, with preference given to English. During his visit to Algeria, Macron encountered insults in the street and inscriptions in English at the entrance to the presidential palace (previously, signage in all public institutions was in French).

A slap from Turkey

While France did establish a gas forum in the Eastern Mediterranean with Israel, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Cyprus and Jordan as a counterweight to Turkeys growing geopolitical power, the impact of the pandemic on the EU economy + the Russo-Ukrainian war + Turkeys discovery of large gas fields in the Black Sea made the split of the pseudo-alliance inevitable. Turkey raised relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel to a new level. Official Tel Aviv said that it did not require that Ankara stop contacts with certain entities in Palestine to normalize relations with Turkey.

A slap from Putin

It is important to add Frances mediation in the Ukrainian conflict to the list of failures. On February 8, Macron claimed to have achieved his goal in a phone conversation with Putin. Although Financial Times reported that Macron and Putin had signed an agreement to de-escalate the situation, Peskov said there was no agreement with Macron. The failed mediation efforts during the war have raised questions about the real political weight of France and Macron personally.

A slap from Scholtz

Although France has said that the EU should have a unified policy on China, it was Scholz who went to China with the heads of Volkswagen, BMW and Siemens instead of Macron. According to the Welt newspaper, relations between Berlin and Paris are at an all-time low due to disagreements over gas prices and Scholzs lack of support for Macrons views on EU defense policy.

A slap from Biden

One of the biggest diplomatic failures was the US snatching from France a 56 billion deal for the supply of 12 submarines. French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian called it a stab in the back. Although Bidens Inflation Reduction Act was seen by the EU as an economic threat, Scholz called Macrons visit to the United States and ruining relations with Washington a strategic mistake. Despite Scholzs warnings, Macron went to the US and was harshly criticized by the US political establishment and experts.

Another example: France strengthens its contacts with the countries of Central Asia, but, on the contrary, further strains relations with Azerbaijan, who provides a physical connection between Europe and this region.

In terms of failures, Macron can be rivaled only by Pashinyan. Maybe that is the secret of such closeness between the two politicians. By supporting Armenia, Macron seeks, on the one hand, to replace Moscow and Ankara and, on the other hand, to partly save political face inside his own country amid all the setbacks. Meanwhile, Macron is regularly slapped by the French themselves.
By Shannon Stapleton and Vladyslav Smilianets

KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Ukraine (Reuters)  Ukrainians leaving the eastern city of Bakhmut this week described almost constant Russian shelling that forced residents to shelter in basements and sleep in the bitter cold.

Bakhmut, with a population of 80,000 people before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, has become a symbol of the grinding warfare playing out along much of the eastern front, where enemy positions have rarely budged more than a few hundred metres (yards) in recent weeks.

Military experts say Bakhmut appears to be of little strategic value, but Russian forces including mercenaries fighting for the Wagner group have in recent days intensified their bombardment.

The house would shake and every minute or second you expect it could crumble around you and thatd be it. I couldnt even sleep in the last week, so I decided to leave, said Valentyna, a retired woman of 70 who fled on Tuesday.

She declined to give her full name.

Before the war, Bakhmut was best known for its popular brand of Soviet-era, champagne-style wine and a nearby salt mine.

Its capture by Russian forces would be a rare piece of good news for Moscow after having suffered a series of humiliating battlefield setbacks against foes they initially thought would be easily overcome.

Military losses on both sides could be heavy in and around Bakhmut in fighting that has ebbed and flowed since May, although there are no reliable estimates.

According to the regional governor, fewer than 12,000 residents remain in a town that has sustained serious damage.

WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR?

Leonid, a 37-year-old military chaplain who only gave his first name, drove a van into Bakhmut to evacuate civilians.

He described a picture of devastation, with mostly elderly people left behind on the streets and humanitarian aid workers covered in soot after fighting a fire.

Footage taken from inside Bakhmut in recent days has shown largely deserted areas, some buildings burning or badly bombed and regular bursts of gunfire.

The situation is horrible, because there is constant shelling, constant attacks, said Leonid, speaking to Reuters in his van as it passed through the town of Kostiantynivka en route away from front lines after its trip in Bakhmut.

When we came into Bakhmut, there were fires to the left and right, he said.

Valentyna was evacuated in Leonids van, headed towards the train station in Ukrainian-controlled Pokrovsk on the way to joining her son in Kyiv.

The pensioner said she finally left her flat because of the cold  there was no central heating  and the fear of shelling.

It was cold. We slept in temperatures of three degrees Celsius in the house under three blankets  You lose faith, she said, adding that many people remained in Bakhmut.

Where the guys picked me up from, theres a basement nearby, theres a kindergarten there. There are a lot of people there.

Leonid said around 60 people, 15 of them children, had gathered around the van when he stopped, but that they turned down his offer to drive them out.

I begged them to go. No one agreed. Some came up and took my phone number: a grandma whose apartment burned down, another two women with children, he said.

People are still waiting for everything to end, even though it has become much more dangerous. People cry, but still stay. We dont know what they are waiting for.

(Writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Mike Collett-White and Mark Heinrich)
The remains of 23-year-old exchange student Lemikani Nerenda, who was killed in Ukraine while fighting for Vladimir Putins war machine, arrived Sunday in his native Zambia. According to the Associated Press (AP).

Nerenda was murdered in September, just a month after he was recruited by the notorious Russian mercenary group Wagner.

Zambian authorities are now demanding a detailed explanation from the Russian authorities not only of how the 23-year-old was recruited, but also how he was killed.

sea of flames: Several videos on social media show a violent fire following the attack on a Russian base in the occupied city of Melitopol, southern Ukraine. Reporter: Jostein Sletten / Dagbladet TV

Show more



Convicted  then enlisted

The 23-year-old Zambian studied nuclear engineering in Moscow, but in April 2020 he was found guilty of drug trafficking. He was sentenced to nine years imprisonment.

Before Russian President Vladimir Putin mobilized 300,000 Russians for the war in Ukraine, the Russian authorities relied on volunteers to recruit soldiers.

Putins war machine was attracted by large bonuses and a relatively high salary, but the large numbers did not materialize.

Thus began the notorious Wagner mercenary group, Owned by Chef Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhinto recruit soldiers from Russian prisons.

those who volunteered, He was pardoned in exchange for military service in Ukraine.

Lieutenant General Arne Bord-Dalhough believes that the kind of Ukrainian attacks seen in recent weeks will continue. Correspondent: Bjorg Dahle-Johansen. Video: Twitter/Dagbladet TV

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Common abuse

This summer, 23-year-old Nirenda was recruited. On August 23, the Zambian authorities were informed that the exchange seeker had been pardoned in exchange for Nerendas service in Ukraine.

He then served more than two years of his prison sentence.

It is not known what concrete assessments the 23-year-old made prior to his recruitment to Wagner, but prison conditions in Russian prisons can be downright harsh.

Notorious: The oligarch known as Putins chef Yevgeny Prigozhin, owns the notorious Wagner Group. Photo: NTB

Show more



In the 2021 report The US State Department writes that overcrowding, mistreatment by guards and prisoners, limited access to health care, food shortages, and inadequate sanitary conditions are common in prisons, penal camps, and other facilities.

It happened the same year Dagbladet has access to extensive video material documenting systematic torture of inmates in Russian prisons.

 Torture as a problem in Russian prisons is very acute and the authorities are not doing enough to ensure effective investigations into it, said Tanya Lokshina, then Europe director at Human Rights Watch.

Wagner Group: Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man behind the Wagner Group, is recruiting Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine. Video: Telegram/Wagner Group. Correspondent: Vegard Kruger.

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requires a response

In September, just weeks after Zambian authorities were informed that Nyrinda had been pardoned against participating in the war in Ukraine, the 23-year-old was said to have been killed in Ukraine, according to the Associated Press.

When, where and how exactly, neither Nerindas family nor the Zambian authorities know.

Zambias foreign minister, Stanley Kakubo, said that Zambian authorities have asked Russian authorities to provide reports of Nerendas military service and conscription, the Associated Press writes.

 We requested details, and not just about his recruitment, from Russian officials, Kakubo says in a statement.

In the 23-year-olds hometown, Lusaku in Zambia, residents are terrified of death.

 How can Russia recruit our studying compatriots to fight their war? This is definitely not true, and our authorities must make sure that they can protect the lives of our citizens in Russia.

Offensive player: The Georgia National Legion recently shared this video of them attacking Wagner soldiers. Video: Georgian National Legion. Correspondent: Vegard Kruger.

Show more



reports in November

In mid-November, there were reports that 23-year-old Nerenda had been killed in Ukraine.

Our thoughts, hearts and prayers are with Nerendas family, friends and loved ones, he wrote. Then the Zambian diaspora in Moscow.

At the end of November, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, and He confirmed the killing of a Zambian citizen in Ukraine.

Then Prigozhin, one of Putins closest allies, claimed that Nerenda wanted to fight in Ukraine.

Nerendas family did not comment on Prigozhzhins remarks, but said in a statement that a forensic examination of the 23-year-olds body would be conducted prior to the funeral.
Ruska zoldnerska skupina Wagner Group verbuje ve Stredoafricke republice odsouzene nasilniky, ktere nasledne posila bojovat na Ukrajinu. Z Afriky neziskava pouze lidskou silu, ale i penize. Cela jejich pritomnost ma i politicke cile  prohlubovat vliv Kremlu v regionu a podkopavat obraz Evropy.

Mohammed pochazi ze Stredoafricke republiky (SAR), ale nyni nejspis bojuje na Ukrajine. V domovske zemi sedel za mrizemi za znasilneni a pozabijeni civilistu. Z vezeni jej spolu s jeho ctyrmi kumpany dostala nechvalne proslula ruska zoldnerska skupina Wagner Group. Ta v Africe verbuje Mohammedovi podobne jedince a posila je valcit do Evropy.

Wagnerovci osvobozuji odsouzene z mene strezenych cel v SAR a doplnuji tak sve pocty. Mnoho z novych kontraktoru je z rebelske skupiny Unie pro mir (UPC). Za mrizemi jsou casto za ty nejtezsi zlociny na nevinnych lidech. Nikdo muze z Wagner Group nemuze zastavit, protoze vlada jim dala moc a oni jednaji, jak chteji, sveril se The Daily Beast dustojnik z vojenskeho velitelstvi v Bangui, hlavnim meste SAR.

Nekteri z osvobozenych africkych veznu si stezovali, ze rusti vojaci je na Ukrajine vysadili v nejakem meste a nechali je tam bojovat samotne.

Dalsim z rebelu, kteri se pridali k Rusum, je muz prezdivany Maly Bouba. Ten byl zatcen v cervnu za napomahani utokum na vladni sily. Obvinili ho ze zmasakrovani vojaku, objasnil byvaly rebel Hassan, ktery od wagnerovcu nedavno odesel. Ted bojuje na Ukrajine.

Nekdejsim clenum UPC, kteri prijali nabidku od Rusu, se v jejich rodne zemi zacalo rikat cerni Rusove. Podle Hassana byli v polovine brezna vsichni jeho byvali bratri ve zbrani na vychodni Ukrajine a bojovali za Rusko. Kdyz jsme si telefonovali, rikali, ze je jejich velitele opustili a nikdo se nestara o to, co delaji, poznamenal.

Nekteri z nasich lidi nam telefonovali a stezovali si, ze rusti vojaci, kteri je vzali na vychodni Ukrajinu, je vysadili v nejakem meste a nechali je bojovat samotne, prozradil Ali, pritel Hassana, ktery z Wagner Group take odesel.

Ctete take: Rusti zoldaci v Mali aneb Prodlouzena ruka Kremlu bez zlatych orlu na rukavu

Nejmene 200 Stredoafricanu  puvodne z UPC  uz pred rokem odcestovalo do Moskvy na vycvik, ktery mel podle puvodni domluvy trvat tydny na zakladne wagnerovcu v Africe. Nasledne byli prepraveni na Donbas, kde se zapojili do boju.

Ne vzdy se ale wagnerovcum osvobozovani moznych budoucich spolubojovniku podari. V cervnu egyptsti vojaci z mise MINUSCA zabranili ruskym zoldnerum v propusteni peti trestancu z vojenskeho vezeni Roux ve stredoafricke metropoli.

Podle Aliho a Hassana nedostali zatim tito cerni Rusove od wagnerovcu ani od SAR za rok zoldnerske prace zadne penize. Stredoafricka vlada jim pry pritom prislibila mesicni stipendia  pripominat to ma nejspis studijni pobyt v cizi zemi. S rostoucimi problemy Ruska ve valce vsak neni pro africke spolubojovniky ani dostatek zakladniho vybaveni. Rekli mi, ze nemaji ani naboje, dodal Hassan.

Vetsina z Africanu najatych wagnerovci se chce jen skrze kontrakt dostat do Evropy. To ale tvrde narazi na ruskou praxi ve vyuzivani zoldaku.

V samotne Stredoafricke republice pak africti zoldneri pracujici pro Wagner Group zacali mizet. Tedy ti, kteri v teto zemi meli zustat. Za posledni dva mesice takto zahadne zmizelo az 50 nasich kolegu, sveril se Ali. Nikdo nevi, kde jsou, a Rusove nam neodpovidaji. Podle nekterych mohli byt poslani bojovat na Ukrajinu nebo plnit jine, nespecifikovane ukoly. Rusove delaji vsechno v tajnosti, upresnil Ali.

Stredoafricka republika pritom neni jedine misto, odkud Wagner Group posila tamni obyvatele bojovat do Evropy. V nekolika africkych zemich maji wagnerovci sve lidi, skrze ktere se jim dari ovlivnovat mistni politiku. Zisky z tezby nerostnych surovin tak mohou plynout i na financovani jednotek bojujicich na Ukrajine.

Evropska valka oslabuje pocty jinde

V breznu stahla Wagner Group asi 1300 svych kontraktoru z Libye a poslala je na Ukrajinu. V severoafricke zemi wagnerovci podporovali vudce Libyjske narodni armady Chalifu Haftara. O kus dal  v etiopske metropoli Addis Abebe  se pak v dubnu pred ruskym velvyslanectvim shromazdilo nekolik stovek muzu, kteri doufali, ze budou za penize poslani taktez na Ukrajinu.

Ctete take: Burkina Faso: Dalsi vojensky puc, tentokrat s ruskymi vlajkami a gratulaci od wagnerovcu

Mnoho potencialnich bojovniku nachazela Wagner Group v Eritreji, Kongu ci Kamerunu. Vetsina z nich ale netouzi po boji, chteji se jen skrze kontrakt dostat do Evropy. To ale tvrde narazi na ruskou praxi ve vyuzivani takovych zoldaku.

Kontraktori z Afriky jsou pro Wagner Group jednoznacne levnejsi nez treba Rusove. Podle vyzkumne organizace RLI je jim nabizeno asi 300 dolaru mesicne, zatimco najemnym Rusum 1000 dolaru. Posilani jsou potom na ta nejnebezpecnejsi mista. Konkretne do lokalit, v nichz chteji wagnerovsti velitele Ukrajince vyprovokovat k palbe, aby odhalili svoje pozice. Takove zoldnerske jednotky jsou nasledne decimovany, a nejsou tedy ani potreba dalsi platby.

Penize nejen za drevo

Rusove vsak do Afriky neprichazeji jen kvuli najimani bojovniku. Wagner Group tam coby prodlouzena ruka Kremlu plni i mnohem zasadnejsi roli, jak uz o tom Voxpot nekolikrat psal. Takovych strategickych cilu se pak samozrejme lepe dosahuje v pratelske atmosfere.

Prispet k tomu ma napriklad i snimek Turista, promitany v mnoha africkych kinech. Cilen je zejmena na SAR. Jeho hlavni hrdina Grisa Dmitriev prijizdi do SAR se skupinou vojenskych instruktoru, kteri maji za ukol skolit mistni armadu v zakladech boje. Nakonec vsak zabrani skupine rebelu ve statnim prevratu.



Film, ktery sledoval plny stadion lidi v Bangui, je ovsem inspirovan skutecnymi udalostmi. I v realite se totiz vladni armade s prispenim wagnerovcu podarilo loni v lednu zastavit rebely a znemoznit jim prevzit vladu v zemi. Ti se o uchvaceni moci snazili pote, co ustavni soud zamitl prezidentskou kandidaturu byvale hlave statu Francoisi Bozizemu.

Take proto jsou Rusove po nekolika predchozich turistech jako jedini vitani. Pred nimi zemi navstivili kolonizatori z Francie, vojaci ze Sudanu, Demokraticke republiky Kongo, ugandska povstalecka skupina Bozi armada odporu ci americke specialni sily.

Kdekoli jsou doly a hornici, tam jsou take ozbrojenci napojeni na Wagner Group. Kdyz zlatokop narazi na neco cenneho, jdou za nim.

Rada zdejsich obcanu povazuje pritomnost Wagner Group za dobrou vec, podotkl novinar Fiacre Salabe z hlavniho mesta SAR. Vedlo to dokonce k tomu, ze nynejsi stredoafricky prezident Faustin-Archange Touadera prohlasil rustinu za dalsi oficialni jazyk, spolu s francouzstinou a sanzstinou.

To vsechno samozrejme pomaha v zoldnerske cinnosti, k niz patri i obstaravani financi. Wagner Group si tak napriklad v SAR zalozila kryci spolecnost, ktera ma zajistit prodej diamantu. Nejnovejsi zprava expertu, kteri se skupinou zabyvaji, uvadi, ze wagnerovci nuti zbidacene horniky odevzdavat, ci v lepsim pripade prodavat drahokamy jejich ready-made spolecnosti Diamville. Ta podle reportu porusuje pravidla Kimberleyskeho procesu, ktery brani tomu, aby se krvave diamanty dostaly na mezinarodni trh.

Kdekoli jsou doly a hornici, tam jsou take ozbrojenci napojeni na Wagner Group. Kdyz zlatokop narazi na neco cenneho, jdou za nim.  Kvuli drahemu zbozi doslo dokonce i k vrazdam, odhaluji zavery zmineneho vysetrovani s odkazem na zasvecence v SAR.

Autori zpravy pozadali o vyjadreni i ruskeho oligarchu Jevgenije Prigozina, ktery je povazovan za nejvyse postavenou osobu teto zoldnerske spolecnosti. Diamville je vlastnena Emmanuelem Macronem skrz prostrednika. Zminovane vydirani provadeji specialni jednotky NATO, ktere se jmenuji SDFA, zakonspiroval si. Zkratka jednotek SDFA ma pak podle nej znamenat steal diamonds from Africa tedy krast diamanty z Afriky.

Ctete take: Francie i Cesko se stahuji z Mali. Nechavaji za sebou horici portrety Macrona i ruske zoldaky

Loni v unoru ziskala firma Bois Rouge ze SAR povoleni kacet stromy v Konzske panvi. Byl ji na 30 let umoznen pristup k vice nez 186 tisicum hektaru lesa. Jenze tato firma je vice ruska nez africka. Diky satelitnim snimkum je totiz jasne videt, ze v lese pracuje mnoho belochu, kteri vyuzivaji hlavne ruskou techniku.

Putin se snazi vyuzit rostoucich rozporu mezi nekterymi africkymi vladami a jejich tradicnimi evropskymi spojenci.

Zaroven se ziskanim povoleni k tezbe se v dane oblasti rozjelo nekolik vojenskych operaci stredoafricke vladni armady spolu s wagnerovci. Ti meli nejspis za ukol vycistit lesy od ozbrojenych skupin, ktere by praci v lese ztezovaly.

Podle projektu All Eyes on Wagner prinese koncese na lesnictvi spolecnosti znacne zisky. Vytezi-li 30 % plochy, muze jim to potencialne na mezinarodnim trhu vydelat asi 890 milionu dolaru. Vyvoz dreva by mohl byt pro Prigozina vynosnym obchodem a zaroven zpusobem, jak prinest penize do sankciovaneho Ruska, pisi investigativci teto mezinarodni mezioborove skupiny dobrovolniku.

Specialni vojenska operace dela jen problemy

Aktivity wagnerovcu ve Stredoafricke republice jsou soucasti mnohem sirsiho usili Kremlu. Jim se rozumi neoficialne prosazovat geopoliticke cile Ruska v Africe a zaroven zajistovat lukrativni zakazky. Putin se snazi vyuzit rostoucich rozporu mezi nekterymi africkymi vladami a jejich tradicnimi evropskymi spojenci, aby posilil rusky vliv na kontinentu.

V prubehu let ziskali wagnerovci zazemi v 18 africkych zemich. Na mnoha mistech byla tato skupina zaplacena za boj proti islamistickym povstalcum nebo za strezeni dulezitych mist, jako jsou treba doly. Casto bylo ale jeji hlavni motivaci profitovat z tamniho prirodniho bohatstvi, navzdory dohodam, na zaklade kterych do Afriky tato zoldnerska formace prichazela.

Napriklad v Mali se pozvani wagnerovcu mistnim vymstilo. Dorazili tam po statnim prevratu v roce 2020 a jsou spojeni s nekolika masakry civilistu a dalsimi zverstvy. Take v teto zemi je nyni patrna snaha obratit verejne mineni ve prospech Ruska a zdiskreditovat Francii, jez zde mela tradicne mocensky vliv.

Kazdopadne SAR mela byt podle Alexe Vinese z think-tanku Chatham House soucasti koridoru vlivu napric touto casti kontinentu  od Sudanu az po Kongo. Jenze valka na Ukrajine tomu ucinila pritrz. Pokud jde o budovani vlivu v teto oblasti, vracime se k rysovacimu prknu, dodal.

Nyni ma totiz Rusko vcetne jeho Wagner Group hluboko do kapsy, a snazi se tak z Afriky vytezit co nejvice. Nejenze se podili na kaceni stromu, za ktere si zoldneri kupuji naboje, ale do svych paramilitantnich jednotek Kreml verbuje i odsouzene nasilniky. Ti maji v rade pripadu slouzit jen jako potrava pro ukrajinska dela.
December 13, 6:30pm ET

Click here to see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine. It involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).[1] Social media footage posted on December 13 showed a column of likely Belarusian infantry fighting vehicles and trucks reportedly moving from Kolodishchi (just east of Minsk) toward Hatava (6km south of Minsk).[2] Belarusian forces reportedly deployed 25 BTR-80s and 30 trucks with personnel toward Malaryta, Brest (about 15 km from Ukraine) on December 13.[3] Russian T-80 tanks reportedly deployed from the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, to the Brest Training Ground also in Brest (about 30 km from the Belarusian-Ukrainian Border) around December 12.[4] Russia reportedly deployed three MiG-31K interceptors to the Belarusian airfield in Machulishchy on December 13.[5] These deployments are likely part of ongoing Russian information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russias invasion of Ukraine.[6] ISW has written at length about why Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future.[7]



Ukrainian officials continue to assess that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated on December 13 that the situation in northern Ukraine near Belarus has not significantly changed and that Ukrainian authorities still have not detected Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus.[8] The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service reported that the situation on the border with Belarus is under control despite recent Belarusian readiness checks.[9]

Russian milbloggers accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of engaging in performative "excessive reporting" instead of addressing systemic issues with the Russian military and Russian operations in Ukraine. A prominent Russian milblogger discussed the "vicious practice of photo reports" in the Russian military and noted that Russian soldiers are often made to dress in statutory uniforms and appear on camera to propagate a sense of preparedness and professionalism instead of actually preparing for combat missions.[10] The milblogger emphasized that such demonstrations are purely theatrical and create a false sense of coherency in the Russian Armed Forces without actually addressing substantive issues with logistics, communications, and basic provision of units.[11] Several other milbloggers amplified this discussion and accused Russian authorities of engaging in "excessive reporting" in order to inundate the information space with photo and video artifacts that aim to "justify the existence" of the Russian MoD and create a guise of success for Russian operations in Ukraine.[12] One source emphasized its discontent with such "excessive reporting" and called the Russian MoD "the Ministry of Camouflage and Selfies."[13] Russian milbloggers continue to leverage their platforms and notoriety to launch nuanced critiques at the Russian MoD in a way that continues to indicate a growing rift between the bureaucratic practices of the MoD and the realities faced by Russian soldiers on the ground and reported on by a slate of Russian military correspondents. Such discourse allows prominent voices in the nationalist information space to advocate for substantive change while undermining the MoD establishment.

Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide Russia. Axios reported on December 12 that Iran fears international backlash from providing Russia with long range missiles to use in the war in Ukraine and noted that United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 2231 passed in 2015 prevents the transfer or receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles with a range over 300 kilometers and a payload over 500 kilograms until October 2023.[14] Axios noted that violating this resolution could result in a "snapback" mechanism that reimposes UN sanctions against Iran.[15]

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russian in the 1990s as part of an international agreement that Russia explicitly violated by invading Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. In a comment to The New York Times Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky said that Russian forces are using ballistic missiles and Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers that Ukraine transferred to Russia as part of the Budapest Memorandum, whereby Ukraine transferred its nuclear arsenal to Russia for decommissioning.[16] Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom committed in return to "respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine." This agreement has generated some debate about whether or not it committed the United States and the United Kingdom to defend Ukraine, which it did not do. There can be no debate, however, that by this agreement Russia explicitly recognized that Crimea and areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts it occupied in 2014 were parts of Ukraine. By that agreement Russia also committed "to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine," among many other provisions that Russia has violated. Skibitsky noted that Russia has removed the nuclear warhead from these decommissioned Kh-55 subsonic cruise missiles, which are now being used to launch massive missile strikes on Ukraine.[17]



US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine. The US officials expect to receive the necessary approvals from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and President Joe Biden, and the Pentagon could make a formal announcement as early as December 15.[18] CNN reported that it is unclear how many Patriot missile systems the Pentagon plan would provide Ukraine, but that a typical Patriot battery includes up to eight launchers with a capacity of four ready-to-fire missiles each, radar targeting systems, computers, power generators, and an engagement control station.[19]

Russia continues to use concepts of terrorism as a legal framework for domestic repression. Independent Russian outlet Meduza noted on December 13 that Russia has been expanding the concept of terrorism under Russian legislation over the course of the last two decades, and as recently as December of this year the State Duma proposed new amendments to the Russian Criminal Code that equate sabotage with an act of terrorism.[20] Meduza amplified an investigation by another independent Russian outlet, Novaya Gazeta, that noted that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has transitioned from focusing on defining Islamist militant activity in the Caucasus as terrorism to orienting terrorism around the concept of Ukrainian "saboteurs."[21] FSB Head Alexander Bortnikov relatedly claimed on December 13 that there has been an increase in "terrorist" activity within Russia in 2022, which he related to Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) supposedly operating with Western support.[22] Russian authorities seem to be weaponizing the backdrop of the war in Ukraine to justify expansions of terrorism legislation under the guise of protecting domestic security. Such measures likely afford Russian security authorities greater latitude in cracking down on domestic dissent. As ISW has previously reported, Russian authorities have taken similar steps to use legal frameworks to broadly define individuals and actions as dangerous to Russian security and have recently proposed new bills on expanding the definition of "foreign agents" and the punishment for crimes considered to be sabotage.[23]

Key Takeaways

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.

Ukrainian officials continue to assess that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13.

Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide to Russia in order to avoid triggering UN "snapback" sanctions.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russia in the 1990s as part of an international agreement by which Russia recognized Crimea and all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as part of Ukraine and committed not to threaten or attack Ukraine.

US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.

Russia continues to use concepts of terrorism as a legal framework for domestic repression.

Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces made marginal advances within Bakhmut and continued ground assaults near Avdiivka and Vuhledar.

Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain areas south of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear positions in occupied Kherson Oblast.

Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past few days.

The Wagner Group is continuing efforts to use recruits from Russian prisoners to generate combat power.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Ukrainian CounteroffensivesEastern Ukraine

Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and one supporting effort);

Russian Subordinate Main EffortCapture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast

Russian Supporting EffortSouthern Axis

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts

Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain positions northwest of Svatove on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked toward Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka, both about 15km northwest of Svatove.[24] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops northwest of Svatove are reinforcing positions in preparation for an anticipated Russian offensive in the area.[25] Russian forces reportedly struck Kupyansk (45km northwest of Svatove) with S-300 surface-to-air missiles.[26]

Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Novoyehorivka (35km northwest of Kreminna), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[27] A Russian milblogger warned that Ukrainian forces are massing for a new offensive along the Svatove-Kreminna line and concentrating manpower and equipment in this area.[28] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces west of Kreminna conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Terny and Yampolivka.[29] Another Russian source claimed that Russian troops are trying to push Ukrainian detachments back across the Zherebets River, also west of Kreminna.[30]

Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main EffortDonetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas)

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops made marginal advances within Bakhmut on December 13. A Russian milblogger reported that Wagner Group forces broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in the eastern part of Bakhmut and established full control of the Bakhmut Champagne Winery and "Siniat" enterprise.[31] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian troops are advancing down several streets in the southeastern and eastern sectors of Bakhmut.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian troops are continuing to repel Russian assaults northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamianske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, and Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Kurdiumivka, and Mayorsk.[33] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops have established control of 90% of Opytne, 3km south of Bakhmut.[34] Russian sources continue to emphasize heavy Ukrainian losses and claim that Ukrainian troops are rotating or entirely withdrawing from parts of Bakhmut.[35]

Russian forces continued ground assaults in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Avdiivka and Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).[36] The Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR) 11th Regiment posted footage of strikes on Ukrainian positions reportedly in Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka), and a Russian milblogger claimed that the 11th Regiment and "Somalia" battalion are active in repelling Ukrainian counterattacks near Pervomaiske.[37] Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian troops have taken control of the road that runs from Marinka to Krasnohorivka (5km north of Marinka), which they highlighted as a major blow for the Ukrainian grouping on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City.[38] Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces have retaken positions east of Druzhby Prospekt in central Marinka, suggesting that ground in Marinkas city center is constantly contested.[39] Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting limited counterattacks in the face of Russian advances southwest of Donetsk City in the Vuhledar area.[40]

Supporting EffortSouthern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain areas south of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear positions in occupied Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 13 that Russian forces in the Kherson direction are rotating individual units and are withdrawing from Novomykhailivka (west of the R47 highway 23km west of Henichesk) and Mykhailivka (on the T2209 highway 45km northwest of Henichesk).[41] Ukrainian officials have previously stated that they aim to prevent Russian forces from being able to approach the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[42] Images posted on December 12 show Russian forces erecting dragons teeth anti-tank fortifications near Viazivka, Zaporizhia Oblast (just west of Melitopol on the E56 Kherson City-Melitopol highway) and Novotroitske (northwest of Henichesk on the R47 Nova Kakhovka-Henichesk highway), Kherson Oblast.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell areas on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River, including Kherson City and its environs.[44]

Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past few days. Images from December 13 show significant damage and fallen spans of the M14/E58 bridge across the Molochna River in Melitopol (roughly 100km behind the front lines), and Russian occupation officials claimed that Ukrainian "saboteurs" detonated 15-20kg of explosives to down the bridge overnight.[45] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials claimed that Russian authorities will erect a temporary bypass bridge within two weeks and publicized alternate routes for ground transportation.[46] Russian officials claimed that the bridge attack did not affect Russian logistics routes between Melitopol and Crimea, but some milbloggers claimed otherwise and criticized occupation officials for not guarding the bridge.[47] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 13 that Ukrainian strikes destroyed the command post of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army in Melitopol, and further strikes against Enerhodar, Tokmak, and Hulyaipole cumulatively wounded 150 personnel and destroyed three artillery installations and 10 pieces of equipment.[48] A Russian milblogger noted that ongoing Ukrainian strikes against rear areas in Zaporizhia Oblast resemble the Ukrainian strategy in advance of the Kherson counteroffensive, and cautioned Russian forces to learn from military failures in Kherson Oblast.[49]

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced on December 13 that it has made progress in negotiations regarding the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), and French President Emmanuel Macron claimed that both sides agreed to the removal of Russian heavy weapons from the ZNPP grounds (Ukraine has no weapons of any sort on the ZNPP grounds).[50] Macron stated that negotiations are ongoing regarding the implementation of the removal of Russian heavy weapons from the ZNPP.[51] Russian occupation officials and milbloggers balked at Macrons announcement, falsely claiming that Macrons statement included the removal of light weapons from the ZNPP grounds.[52] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces do not store heavy weapons at the ZNPP grounds and that the removal of light weapons, such as rifles, would compromise the physical security of the plant.[53] ISW has previously reported on satellite imagery demonstrating that Russian forces have stored heavy weapons on and around the ZNPP grounds, including under ZNPP infrastructure.[54] IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi stated that he is confident that all sides will reach an agreement regarding the ZNPP soon.[55] An agreement regarding the demilitarization of the ZNPP remains unlikely to constitute a full or partial Russian military withdrawal from the ZNPP or Enerhodar, and would not eliminate the ongoing threat to the ZNPP, as ISW has previously assessed.[56]

Russian forces continued to conduct routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on December 12. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces shelled Nikopol and Marhanets, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.[57]

Note: ISW will report on activities in Kherson Oblast as part of the Southern Axis in this and subsequent updates. Ukraines counteroffensive in right-bank Kherson Oblast has accomplished its stated objectives, so ISW will not present a Southern Ukraine counteroffensive section until Ukrainian forces resume counteroffensives in southern Ukraine.

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Wagner Group is continuing efforts to use recruits from Russian prisons to generate combat power. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 13 that Wagner Group Financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin has sent over 23,000 Russian prisoners to the Ukrainian front lines as part of his extended effort to bolster his political influence and potentially position himself as Putins successor.[58] The Ukrainian Resistance Center claimed that Russian society does not care about the fate of prisoners, allowing Prigozhin to use them as cannon fodder in high-risk and high-mortality operations while keeping Wagner Group leadership out of combat.[59] Russian opposition outlet Meduza amplified a December 12 interview with a Wagner POW and Russian convict, Vyacheslav Izmailov, who stated that Wagner promised prisoner recruits a six-month contract, 200,000 rubles, privileges for their families, complete release from their criminal punishment upon completion of the contract, and a safer position in trenches along the second front line in Ukraine.[60] Izmailov stated that Wagner did not keep any of these promises and, after two weeks of training, the prisoner recruits were immediately thrown into the front line where the mortality rate was extremely high.[61] Izmailov stated that 70 Wagner convicts of his 90-person platoon were killed.[62]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have intensified forced mobilization in occupied territories. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast have intensified forced mobilization in an effort to replenish losses in the Russian 1st Army Corps (forces of the Donetsk Peoples Republic).[63] The report stated that Russian forces in Horlivka, Donetsk are subjecting residents to forced conscriptions, especially residents with previous armored unit experience.[64]

Russian authorities are continuing efforts to facilitate the war using legislative measures. The Russian State Duma adopted the first reading of a draft law on December 13 which simplifies the transfer of military production from federal authorities to Russian nongovernment organizations as part of the State Defense Order.[65] The initiative is designed to ensure that the production of military equipmentlike weapons, ammunition, spare vehicle parts, special components, and devicesremains proactive and that all such state production tasks are accomplished in a timely manner by lessening bureaucratic restraints on production.[66] A prominent Russian milblogger stated that this draft law is meant to eliminate the organizational and bureaucratic obstacles that slow down the efficiency of the war.[67]

The Russian MoD, supported by various milbloggers, is attempting to establish a facade of attention to the needs of mobilized personnel. One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are solving their problems and that professionalism and order among mobilized personnel are growing as the Russian forces become a "single organism."[68] The milblogger claimed that the Russian MoD has supplied forces with new equipment and technology, such as anti-drone guns, and that Russian forces improved their warfighting tactics such as artillery target-to-fire time.[69] Another Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian MoD responded to a video complaint from mobilized personnel concerning insufficient equipment by sending that unit new equipment.[70] The milblogger stated that the Russian public should be proud of what the Russian MoD accomplished and that it is the "best in the world."[71]

Russian forces continued to experience issues with basic equipment and provisions for mobilized recruits. An open-source intelligence aggregator amplified a report that mobilized conscripts at a training base in Siberia are falling sick with bronchitis and pneumonia en masse likely due to living in tents in 30*C (-22*F) temperatures.[72] Open-source intelligence aggregators and a Ukrainian source also circulated photos of Russian dragons teeth barricades decaying in an unspecified location in Ukraine due to harsh weather conditions compared to a photo of dragons teeth made during World War II that appear less degraded despite their decades of age difference.[73]

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Ukrainian partisans conducted an assassination attempt against a Russian occupation official on December 12. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against Kherson Oblast occupation Deputy Head Vitaly Bulyuk in his car in Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast, killing the cars driver and injuring Bulyuk.[74] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo condemned the assassination attempt, claiming that "Ukrainian terrorists" committed the attack.[75] Saldo stated that Bulyuks resulting injuries are not life-threatening.[76]

Russian authorities announced on December 13 that they are currently only integrating occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts into the Russian judicial system. Russian State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation First Deputy Chairperson Irina Pankina stated that only legislation on the integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics (DNR and LNR) into the Russian judicial system is "at a high stage of readiness," explicitly stating that the legislation "does not apply to Zaporizhia and Kherson" oblasts.[77] Pankina did not state a reason for the delay in legislation for occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.[78] A Russian milblogger claimed that Pankina's announcement is "alarming" given that Russia considers all four illegally occupied territories as "inalienable territories of the Russian Federation."[79] Such disparate treatment of occupied territories may contribute to setting information conditions for the eventual territorial loss of some or all of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, whether intentional or not, and suggests constant confusion in Russias annexation agenda.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

View Citations
De strafkampen en gevangenissen in Rusland telden begin november 25.000 gedetineerden minder dan begin september. Die zijn niet naar huis, maar zitten in opleidingskampen, of vechten al aan het front. Ze worden gestuurd naar een van de bloedigste slagen uit de oorlog. Militair heeft het stadje waar ze zich bevinden weinig betekenis, maar voor Rusland en zeker voor de paramilitaire Wagner Group is het een prestigeslag geworden. Gevangenen zijn cruciaal kanonnenvlees.